Published/Forthcoming
Survey Data on Attitudes Towards Foreign Aid & Development in France, Germany, Great Britain, and the U.S (with Jennifer Hudson, David Hudson, Soomin Oh, Paolo Morini). Forthcoming Nature - Scientific Data.
Abstract
Public support is crucial for shaping effective foreign aid policy and development cooperation. The Development Engagement Lab (DEL) has conducted surveys in France, Germany, Great Britain, and the United States to track and analyse public attitudes towards foreign aid and engagement with sustainable development. This data descriptor presents multiple datasets, identifying shifts in public opinion and behaviours, alongside underlying mechanisms explaining these attitudes and actions. The dataset comprises nationally representative panel data (2019 - 2024), repeated cross-sections (2019 - 2024), and several foreign aid subject-specific datasets. The DEL data contains 91 unique datasets, with 270,829 observations from 130,286 unique respondents. We have developed an R package, DELdata, to facilitate the use and dissemination of these datasets. These data will enable scholars and policymakers to produce valuable insights that will generate a better understanding of how citizens think about, and engage with, foreign aid and sustainable development.
Under review
Government Audits of Municipal Corruption and Belief Updating: Experimental from a Field Experiment (with Raymond Duch).
Abstract
We implemented a field experiment that assesses whether citizens update corruption beliefs when presented with audit information about malfeasance in their municipal government. The video treatment reports audit results for Chilean municipalities; the control is a placebo video. We measure incentivized pre-treatment and post-treatment corruption beliefs of 5,528 subjects. When informed about corruption in their municipality subjects update negatively. Updating is correlated with reported malfeasance and with trends in malfeasance. We find limited evidence of Bayesian learning. Treatment effects persist after one-month. We observe higher donations to local public goods by treated subjects in municipalities with more positive audits.
Measuring Corruption using Bayesian Randomise Item Response Model (with Ahra Wu).
Abstract
The political and economic consequences of corruption are substantial. Corruption can lead to a reduction in the provision of public goods and undermine trust in democratic institutions. Scholars have been trying to reliably measure the prevalence of corruption behaviors in the population using surveys using direct question format type-of-questions. However, these measures are likely biased due to social desirability and non-response biases. Indirect questioning survey techniques have been designed to minimize these biases and elicit truthful answers to sensitive topics and behavior. However, the canonical design of these techniques only allows the measurement of group-level estimates. This paper provides empirical evidence of an extension of the Randomized Response Technique called the Randomized Item Count Response Technique (RIRT) to estimate both group- and individual corrupt behaviors (n = 6058 and n = 3692). At the group level, we found prevalence rates from 60% in the case of patronage to 1% in administrative corruption. For individual-level estimates, we found that the distribution of respondents' underlying traits for engaging in corrupt behavior follows a power-law distribution. We implemented several approaches to identify inattentive study participants, showing that our results are robust once we exclude these respondents.
Working papers
Choice Architecture for Messaging Corruption: Evidence from an Adaptive Experiment (with Raymond Duch).
Abstract
The presentation and framing of information are the foundations of many behavioural experiments. In the case of corruption, policymakers such as NGOs face the challenge of informing citizens about the levels of malfeasance found in their local constituency. This challenge implies identifying an optimal messaging strategy that is sufficiently compelling to attract the interest of citizens. We addressed this challenge by evaluating six strategies for information messages often used in corruption information experiments. Using historical data from local government audit reports in Chile and partnership with the NGO Chile Transparente, we implemented an online adaptive experiment using a modified Thompson Sampling algorithm (Exploration sampling) in which the assignment probabilities of the information treatments were updated in 11 batches of 100 subjects each. The results showed no unique optimal information strategy for malfeasance messages. However, a loss-frame information strategy tends to be slightly more persuasive than other ways of conveying information about corruption. We also found evidence that more rudimentary information metrics of corruption can be equally compelling than more sophisticated ones. Finally, we did not find significant differences between using spatial comparison (i.e. comparing corruption in a local government across local constituencies within the same region) versus a temporal comparison (i.e. comparing the same local government across time).
Do Government Audits Reduce Bureaucrats’ Rent Extraction? Evidence from a Million Bureaucrats. (with Luis Soto Tamayo).
Abstract
Governments have widely used audits to combat corruption, enhance accountability, and curb patronage in the public sector. This paper examines the impact of audits on civil servants, assessing their effectiveness in deterring rent-seeking behaviour. Using a unique dataset from Chile, where civil servants were randomly audited in 2016 and leveraging the staggered implementation of audits from 2016 to 2020, we estimate the effects of audits on rent extraction on around 1,000,000 bureaucrats. Our preliminary findings suggest that audits discourage rent-seeking among public officials, though the overall impact is modest.
The Politics of Bureaucracy: Evidence from a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (Single-authored).
Abstract
Patronage remains a widespread phenomenon that shapes the functioning of political systems and influences governance outcomes. Scholars across disciplines have explored the impact of patronage on various organisational, institutional, and individual outcomes, highlighting how patronage affects performance, efficiency, and public trust. Numerous studies provide empirical evidence on the strategic allocation of patronage benefits by officials and brokers based on the characteristics of beneficiaries, such as loyalty and social connections, and the nature of benefits provided. While some agreement exists on the general direction of patronage’s impact on these outcomes, there remains significant variation in the size and scope of these effects across contexts. To the best of my knowledge, no study has yet undertaken a systematic assessment of the pooled impact of patronage. This project aims to systematically identify and analyse published quantitative studies on the effects of patronage over the past decade. Through meta-analysis, I estimate the inverse variance-weighted average effect of patronage on organisational performance, institutional efficacy, and public perceptions of institutional integrity. Furthermore, using meta-regression, I investigate the heterogeneity of these effects by examining how outcomes differ based on beneficiary characteristics (e.g., loyalty, socioeconomic status, historical connections) and types of benefits (e.g., material resources, career positions, or preferential treatment). This analysis helps clarify the extent and variability of patronage’s impact on governance and identify the factors that drive these effects.
Can E-Procurement Systems Deter Procurement Favouritism? Evidence from a Natural Experiment.
Abstract
This study investigates whether the introduction of e-procurement systems can reduce procurement favouritism in public contracting. Leveraging a natural experiment arising from the phased rollout of an electronic procurement platform in Chile, I examine how digitalising procurement processes affects patterns of contract allocation. Using detailed administrative data on public contracts, I exploit variation in the timing of system adoption to estimate its impact. The findings indicate that e-procurement systems significantly reduce indicators of favouritism, such as contract awards to politically connected firms and non-competitive bidding practices. These results highlight the potential of digital tools to enhance transparency and accountability in public procurement.
The Spillover Effects of Audits (Single-authored).
Abstract
Governments across the globe have set audits as one of the primary mechanisms to measure and deter corruption. This paper focuses on the spillover effects of audits within local governments in Chile. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, I exploit the discontinuity in allocating audits within local governments/departments to estimate the effects of audits within departments within each municipality. The fuzzy RD results will be completed using panel data from audits conducted between 2014-2024. I expect to present the preliminary results of both estimation strategies pre-registered in the analysis plan at the conference.
Explaining Public Support for Foreign Aid Projects: Evidence from France, Germany, Great Britain and the United States (with Jennifer Hudson, David Hudson, Soomin Oh, Paolo Morini).
Abstract
Public support is understood to be a condition for foreign aid spending in donor countries. But do donor publics have preferences on which aid projects foreign aid is spent? Drawing on a new dataset examining four donor countries – France, Germany, Great Britain and the United States (n= 26,169) – we leverage a unique conjoint experiment to understand better which attributes of aid projects generate more or less support with donor publics. Our results show that respondents are more likely to support projects targeting water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), food security, and health programmes. Projects focused on gender equality, environment, infrastructure and social protection are negatively associated with support. In line with our expectations, we find effects for need and aid effectiveness: higher levels of extreme poverty and effectiveness of aid are associated with support for the development project, whereas low levels of need and low effectiveness are negatively associated with support. Second, we find few effects for region, with less support for projects targeted to the Middle East and Northern Africa. Finally, our main findings are robust when we remove need and effectiveness as attributes, demonstrating while these are important drivers of support, they do not crowd out other attributes or dimensions. Our findings show that in addition to preferences on overall levels of foreign aid spending, donor publics have a consistent set of preferences on how aid is spent.
The Power of Activation: Assessing the Effect of Imagery in Global Poverty Campaigns: Evidence from a Visual Conjoint (with Jennifer Hudson, David Hudson, Soomin Oh, Paolo Morini). 
Abstract
This project seeks to understand how image development organisations use in campaigns and communications affect public engagement, specifically, donations and information-seeking behaviours. In our design, we study the way individuals respond to these images by exploring their emotional responses and senses of efficacy and urgency. We then study the effect of these responses on their choices to donate or seek more information about the people in the image.
What Have We Learned About the Effects of Corruption Information? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Abstract
To be added soon :)
</details>
Adaptive Experimentation to Explore Treatment Effect Heterogeneity Efficiently (Single-authored).
Abstract
To be added soon :)
</details>